Free sports pick · Thursday, September 24, 2026

Today's Free Pick

One transparent selection with the exact price, playable limit, matchup case, risks, timestamp, and permanent result. No email gate and no hidden number.

MLBOfficial Play
LOSS

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals · Thu, Sep 24, 1:10 PM CDT

Kansas City Royals +112

Market
Full game ML
Sportsbook
Caesars
Playable to
+112
Market baseline
Not recorded
Published probability
50.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
Documented edge
+5.0%
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6

The case

MLB LIVE RELEASE. This independently qualified lane cleared the full six-market audit plus fresh exact-price and independent-book confirmation at Caesars. Raw simulation 56.0%, final published probability 50.2% versus 45.2% power no-vig baseline; edge 5.0 points. Model-sized risk is 1.00u under SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6. No material overlap with existing same-slate releases. Forward validation building · 22/50 settled · 19.0% positive CLV (21 closes). No chase beyond the locked price.

Three things to know

  1. 01

    MLB LIVE RELEASE.

  2. 02

    This independently qualified lane cleared the full six-market audit plus fresh exact-price and independent-book confirmation at Caesars.

  3. 03

    Raw simulation 56.0%, final published probability 50.2% versus 45.2% power no-vig baseline; edge 5.0 points.

Main riskThe market can move beyond +112. At a worse price, the published edge and this recommendation no longer apply.
Model-qualified releaseProjection SR-MLB-0.5.3 · release policy SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6. The listed price limit remains binding.
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Why this page is different

A pick is not just a team name.

Sports Rounders publishes the market, price ceiling, evidence, and result together. Official Plays must pass their sport-specific release model. Weekly Research Picks are expert selections that are explicitly labeled and excluded from Official Play validation metrics.

  1. 01Screen the complete slate

    We do not stop after finding one attractive matchup.

  2. 02Verify the market

    The selection must use a current, two-sided sportsbook price.

  3. 03Publish the limit

    If the market crosses the playable number, the pick is no longer valid.

  4. 04Grade permanently

    Results and closing prices remain attached to the original post.

Recent free-pick results

No disappearing losses.

LOSSKansas City Royals +112Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals · Sep 24
LOSSLos Angeles Dodgers -218San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Sep 23
LOSSAtlanta Braves -1.5 -110Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · Sep 23
WINMinnesota Twins -132Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Sep 22
LOSSColorado Rockies +1.5 +107Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies · Sep 22
WINCincinnati Reds +155Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · Sep 22
LOSSSt. Louis Cardinals +144St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Sep 22
LOSSOver +8.5 +102Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Sep 21

Keep researching

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