SRSPORTS ROUNDERS

Public accountability

The complete pick ledger

Every released recommendation remains visible with its model version, available price, price floor, result, and closing line.

Graded83
Record36-44-3
Units-8.45u
ROI-12.3%
Positive CLV20.6%
Average CLV-0.2%
CLV coverage34/83

Price accountability

Every graded play shows its closing-line result.

CLV compares the locked paired no-vig price with the verified closing pair. When the exact paired close is missing, the ledger says unavailable rather than estimating it.

Open the weekly CLV report →Learn how CLV works →

Release-type accountability

Official Plays remain one complete public record. These splits show which releases cleared the model gate and which were explicitly directed by the owner.

Version note: UNKNOWN means a legacy pick did not record an independent release-policy identity. We preserve the projection-engine record, but never infer or backfill a policy label.

Model-qualified34-43-3
Model units-7.93u
Owner-directed2-1-0
Owner units-0.52u
play9/24/2026, 7:00:10 PM CT

Over +7 +100

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners · Full game total · Play to +100

Raw projection
77.7%
Market baseline
47.7%
Weighted residual
+15.0 pts
Published probability
52.7%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
pending
Close
+100
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/24/2026, 7:00:10 PM CT

Houston Astros -1.5 -109

Houston Astros @ Athletics · Full game run line · Play to -109

Raw projection
67.3%
Market baseline
50.1%
Weighted residual
+8.6 pts
Published probability
55.1%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
pending
Close
-109
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/24/2026, 7:00:10 PM CT

San Diego Padres +146

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Full game ML · Play to +146

Raw projection
50.8%
Market baseline
38.4%
Weighted residual
+6.2 pts
Published probability
43.4%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
pending
Close
+146
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/24/2026, 10:16:15 AM CT

Kansas City Royals +112

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals · Full game ML · Play to +112

Raw projection
56.0%
Market baseline
45.2%
Weighted residual
+5.4 pts
Published probability
50.2%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+116
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Missed the close -2.2%
Missed the close by -2.2% (-1.01 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/23/2026, 6:45:38 PM CT

Los Angeles Dodgers -218

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers · F5 ML · Play to -218

Raw projection
72.6%
Market baseline
66.5%
Weighted residual
+4.0 pts
Published probability
70.5%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-218
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/23/2026, 2:30:52 PM CT

Atlanta Braves -1.5 -110

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · Full game run line · Play to -110

Raw projection
59.0%
Market baseline
50.5%
Weighted residual
+4.3 pts
Published probability
54.7%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-110
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/22/2026, 6:30:43 PM CT

Minnesota Twins -132

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Full game ML · Play to -132

Raw projection
65.1%
Market baseline
55.1%
Weighted residual
+5.0 pts
Published probability
60.1%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-137
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +1.6%
Beat the close by +1.6% (+0.91 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/22/2026, 6:30:43 PM CT

Colorado Rockies +1.5 +107

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies · Full game run line · Play to +107

Raw projection
58.6%
Market baseline
46.3%
Weighted residual
+6.2 pts
Published probability
51.3%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+102
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +2.4%
Beat the close by +2.4% (+1.12 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/22/2026, 2:30:36 PM CT

St. Louis Cardinals +144

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Full game ML · Play to +144

Raw projection
48.9%
Market baseline
38.6%
Weighted residual
+5.1 pts
Published probability
43.6%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/22/2026, 2:30:36 PM CT

Cincinnati Reds +155

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · Full game ML · Play to +155

Raw projection
51.7%
Market baseline
36.9%
Weighted residual
+7.4 pts
Published probability
41.9%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
+190
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Missed the close -13.9%
Missed the close by -13.9% (-5.14 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/21/2026, 7:15:16 PM CT

Over +8.5 +102

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Full game total · Play to +102

Raw projection
58.4%
Market baseline
47.4%
Weighted residual
+5.5 pts
Published probability
52.4%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+108
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Missed the close -3.5%
Missed the close by -3.5% (-1.65 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/20/2026, 10:30:22 AM CT

Atlanta Braves +124

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros · Full game ML · Play to +124

Raw projection
52.5%
Market baseline
42.6%
Weighted residual
+4.9 pts
Published probability
47.5%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
+128
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Missed the close -1.9%
Missed the close by -1.9% (-0.82 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/20/2026, 10:24:33 AM CT

Kansas City Royals +100

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Full game ML · Play to +100

Raw projection
53.4%
Market baseline
47.9%
Weighted residual
+2.8 pts
Published probability
50.6%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
2.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+100
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/20/2026, 10:24:33 AM CT

Chicago Cubs -150

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · F5 ML · Play to -150

Raw projection
64.6%
Market baseline
57.7%
Weighted residual
+4.5 pts
Published probability
62.2%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-150
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/20/2026, 10:24:33 AM CT

Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 -112

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · F5 run line · Play to -112

Raw projection
58.6%
Market baseline
50.0%
Weighted residual
+5.6 pts
Published probability
55.0%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-112
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/20/2026, 10:24:33 AM CT

Detroit Tigers +100

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox · Full game ML · Play to +100

Raw projection
58.3%
Market baseline
47.9%
Weighted residual
+5.2 pts
Published probability
52.9%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+100
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/19/2026, 7:15:13 PM CT

Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +175

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · Full game run line · Play to +175

Raw projection
45.9%
Market baseline
34.1%
Weighted residual
+5.9 pts
Published probability
39.1%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/19/2026, 3:00:43 PM CT

Chicago Cubs -129

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · F5 ML · Play to -129

Raw projection
64.6%
Market baseline
54.3%
Weighted residual
+6.7 pts
Published probability
59.3%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
push
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/19/2026, 3:00:43 PM CT

Kansas City Royals -105

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · F5 ML · Play to -105

Raw projection
59.2%
Market baseline
49.1%
Weighted residual
+6.6 pts
Published probability
54.1%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-105
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/19/2026, 3:00:43 PM CT

Texas Rangers -108

Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers · Full game ML · Play to -108

Raw projection
68.6%
Market baseline
49.8%
Weighted residual
+9.4 pts
Published probability
54.8%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-108
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/19/2026, 3:00:43 PM CT

Athletics +160

Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · Full game ML · Play to +160

Raw projection
49.4%
Market baseline
36.2%
Weighted residual
+6.6 pts
Published probability
41.2%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+160
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Missed the close -0.9%
Missed the close by -0.9% (-0.34 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/19/2026, 10:50:35 AM CT

Detroit Tigers +111

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox · Full game ML · Play to +111

Raw projection
56.7%
Market baseline
45.3%
Weighted residual
+5.7 pts
Published probability
50.3%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+111
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/18/2026, 6:30:38 PM CT

Los Angeles Angels +1.5 -170

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · Full game run line · Play to -170

Raw projection
67.6%
Market baseline
61.1%
Weighted residual
+3.2 pts
Published probability
64.3%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
3.2%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-176
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +1.5%
Beat the close by +1.5% (+0.91 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/18/2026, 6:30:38 PM CT

Miami Marlins +172

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres · Full game ML · Play to +172

Raw projection
43.3%
Market baseline
34.5%
Weighted residual
+4.4 pts
Published probability
38.9%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.4%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+172
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/18/2026, 6:30:38 PM CT

Arizona Diamondbacks -109

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Full game ML · Play to -109

Raw projection
65.2%
Market baseline
50.2%
Weighted residual
+7.5 pts
Published probability
55.2%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-109
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/18/2026, 2:30:36 PM CT

Boston Red Sox +118

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · Full game ML · Play to +118

Raw projection
56.1%
Market baseline
43.8%
Weighted residual
+6.2 pts
Published probability
48.8%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
+112
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +2.8%
Beat the close by +2.8% (+1.21 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/18/2026, 2:30:36 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +160

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Full game ML · Play to +160

Raw projection
50.4%
Market baseline
36.2%
Weighted residual
+7.1 pts
Published probability
41.2%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+160
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/17/2026, 4:07:57 PM CT

New York Mets -135

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets · F5 ML · Play to -135

Raw projection
60.8%
Market baseline
54.5%
Weighted residual
+4.1 pts
Published probability
58.6%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.1%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-135
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/17/2026, 4:07:57 PM CT

Boston Red Sox -125

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · Full game ML · Play to -125

Raw projection
59.4%
Market baseline
53.7%
Weighted residual
+2.9 pts
Published probability
56.6%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
2.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-125
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/17/2026, 12:28:49 PM CT

Under +10.5 +102

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · Full game total · Play to +102

Raw projection
66.0%
Market baseline
47.3%
Weighted residual
+9.3 pts
Published probability
52.3%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+102
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/17/2026, 10:25:31 AM CT

Over +7.5 -114

Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays · Full game total · Play to -114

Raw projection
64.4%
Market baseline
51.2%
Weighted residual
+6.6 pts
Published probability
56.2%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-114
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/17/2026, 9:31:01 AM CT

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -109

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · Full game run line · Play to -109

Raw projection
56.8%
Market baseline
50.1%
Weighted residual
+3.3 pts
Published probability
53.5%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
3.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-109
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 5:16:47 PM CT

Colorado Rockies +140

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · Full game ML · Play to +140

Raw projection
53.8%
Market baseline
39.4%
Weighted residual
+7.2 pts
Published probability
44.4%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+140
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 4:00:31 PM CT

Chicago Cubs -170

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs · F5 ML · Play to -170

Raw projection
69.9%
Market baseline
60.9%
Weighted residual
+5.9 pts
Published probability
65.9%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-190
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +4.2%
Beat the close by +4.2% (+2.57 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 3:53:56 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +140

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros · Full game ML · Play to +140

Raw projection
46.3%
Market baseline
39.6%
Weighted residual
+3.3 pts
Published probability
42.9%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
3.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
+140
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 3:53:56 PM CT

Boston Red Sox -104

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · F5 ML · Play to -104

Raw projection
55.4%
Market baseline
48.2%
Weighted residual
+4.7 pts
Published probability
52.8%
Residual bound
Not hit · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
4.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
push
Close
-106
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +1.0%
Beat the close by +1.0% (+0.46 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 3:53:56 PM CT

Los Angeles Dodgers -215

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · Full game ML · Play to -215

Raw projection
80.8%
Market baseline
66.6%
Weighted residual
+7.1 pts
Published probability
71.6%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
-220
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Beat the close +0.8%
Beat the close by +0.8% (+0.51 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 3:53:56 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers -130

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Full game ML · Play to -130

Raw projection
67.5%
Market baseline
54.5%
Weighted residual
+6.5 pts
Published probability
59.5%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
-130
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 12:13:15 PM CT

Detroit Tigers +111

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · Full game ML · Play to +111

Raw projection
71.4%
Market baseline
45.3%
Weighted residual
+13.0 pts
Published probability
50.3%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
loss
Close
+111
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/16/2026, 10:45:39 AM CT

Over +8.5 +106

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · Full game total · Play to +106

Raw projection
76.6%
Market baseline
45.9%
Weighted residual
+15.3 pts
Published probability
50.9%
Residual bound
HIT · 5.0 pts
De-vig
power-v1
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.6
Result
win
Close
+106
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
Matched the close +0.0%
Matched the close by +0.0% (+0.00 no-vig probability points) using power-v1.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Over +7.5 -104

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins · Full game total · Play to -104

Market baseline
48.5%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
52.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Texas Rangers -0.5 +100

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · F5 run line · Play to +100

Market baseline
46.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
51.9%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
win
Close
+100
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Over +8 -111

Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays · Full game total · Play to -111

Market baseline
50.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
55.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
-111
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Baltimore Orioles +113

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets · Full game ML · Play to +113

Market baseline
45.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
50.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
win
Close
+115
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +125

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · Full game run line · Play to +125

Market baseline
42.6%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
47.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
+125
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 40.0% positive CLV (5 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Detroit Tigers +124

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · Full game ML · Play to +124

Market baseline
42.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
47.9%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
win
Close
+124
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 4:46:38 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +140

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros · Full game ML · Play to +140

Market baseline
40.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
45.1%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
+135
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 23/50 settled · 18.2% positive CLV (22 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/15/2026, 2:57:18 PM CT

Pittsburgh Pirates +195

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · F5 ML · Play to +195

Market baseline
32.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
37.4%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.3
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
+195
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 6/50 settled · 16.7% positive CLV (6 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/13/2026, 4:00:31 PM CT

San Diego Padres -0.5 +115

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants · F5 run line · Play to +115

Market baseline
44.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
52.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
8.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
win
Close
+115
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/13/2026, 3:15:16 PM CT

Over +43.5 -107

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs · Full game total · Play to -107

Market baseline
50.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
58.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
8.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
-107
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/40 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/13/2026, 1:00:32 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +171

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · Full game ML · Play to +171

Market baseline
36.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
45.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
9.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+171
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/50 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/13/2026, 9:00:45 AM CT

Colorado Rockies +140

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers · F5 ML · Play to +140

Market baseline
40.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
47.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+145
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 33.3% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/12/2026, 7:00:40 PM CT

Athletics +1.5 -111

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · Full game run line · Play to -111

Market baseline
50.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
56.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
-115
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/12/2026, 3:01:02 PM CT

Houston Astros +126

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays · Full game ML · Play to +126

Market baseline
43.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
49.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+126
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/50 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/12/2026, 8:15:23 AM CT

Arizona Cardinals +400

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · Full game ML · Play to +400

Market baseline
19.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
43.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
23.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.5
Result
win
Close
+375
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/30 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/11/2026, 7:00:51 PM CT

Athletics +150

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · F5 ML · Play to +150

Market baseline
38.8%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
44.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
win
Close
+150
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 33.3% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/11/2026, 3:58:35 PM CT

Cincinnati Reds +178

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers · Full game ML · Play to +178

Market baseline
35.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
43.1%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
8.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+175
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/50 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/11/2026, 2:28:01 PM CT

Boston Red Sox -1.5 +108

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · Full game run line · Play to +108

Market baseline
46.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
54.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+103
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/11/2026, 12:15:22 PM CT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +174

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals · Full game ML · Play to +174

Market baseline
35.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
68.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
32.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
+167
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/30 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/11/2026, 7:56:50 AM CT

Over +38.5 -107

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans · Full game total · Play to -107

Market baseline
50.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
71.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
21.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.5
Result
loss
Close
-113
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/40 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/10/2026, 4:00:16 PM CT

New York Yankees -285

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees · F5 ML · Play to -285

Market baseline
70.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
77.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.2%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
win
Close
-295
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 33.3% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/10/2026, 2:09:52 PM CT

Texas Rangers +108

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners · Full game ML · Play to +108

Market baseline
46.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
50.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.2%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.2
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.4
Result
loss
Close
+104
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/50 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/10/2026, 9:00:53 AM CT

Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 -200

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · Full game run line · Play to -200

Market baseline
64.5%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
73.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
9.1%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
loss
Close
-190
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/10/2026, 7:53:37 AM CT

San Francisco 49ers +177

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Full game ML · Play to +177

Market baseline
34.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
48.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
13.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
+172
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/30 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +0.5 -140

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · F5 run line · Play to -140

Market baseline
56.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
58.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
2.6%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-140
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Under +9 -120

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox · Full game total · Play to -120

Market baseline
52.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
55.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
3.4%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
-120
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Over +8.5 -105

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Full game total · Play to -105

Market baseline
48.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
53.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Over +8 -107

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · Full game total · Play to -107

Market baseline
50.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
54.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.2%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-107
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +102

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · F5 ML · Play to +102

Market baseline
47.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
52.0%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
+102
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 0/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Over +4.5 -104

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · F5 total · Play to -104

Market baseline
48.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
54.0%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +107

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · Full game ML · Play to +107

Market baseline
47.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
51.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
+106
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Los Angeles Dodgers -272

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Full game ML · Play to -272

Market baseline
71.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
77.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Tampa Bay Rays +0.5 -145

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · F5 run line · Play to -145

Market baseline
57.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
63.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-145
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -120

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Full game run line · Play to -120

Market baseline
52.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
58.9%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Tampa Bay Rays -102

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · F5 ML · Play to -102

Market baseline
47.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
55.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-102
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 0/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 -170

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · F5 run line · Play to -170

Market baseline
61.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
68.9%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
-180
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 -190

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · Full game run line · Play to -190

Market baseline
63.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
71.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
8.3%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-190
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Tampa Bay Rays +109

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · Full game ML · Play to +109

Market baseline
46.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
52.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
+110
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Kansas City Royals +1.5 -156

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · Full game run line · Play to -156

Market baseline
59.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
68.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
9.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
-156
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 +110

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers · F5 run line · Play to +110

Market baseline
45.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
54.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
8.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
+110
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers -125

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers · Full game ML · Play to -125

Market baseline
54.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
63.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
9.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
-125
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (1 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 5:20:23 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +168

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers · Full game run line · Play to +168

Market baseline
35.7%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
43.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-LIVE-0.2
Result
win
Close
+168
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · 0.0% positive CLV (3 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 3:05:58 PM CT

Over +44.5 -102

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks · Full game total · Play to -102

Market baseline
48.8%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
54.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/40 settled · 50.0% positive CLV (2 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 3:05:58 PM CT

New England Patriots +3 +100

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks · Full game spread · Play to +100

Market baseline
48.8%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
61.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
12.6%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.2
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 0/40 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/9/2026, 3:05:58 PM CT

New England Patriots +153

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks · Full game ML · Play to +153

Market baseline
38.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
56.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
17.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-NFL-0.2
Release policy
SR-NFL-LIVE-0.2
Result
loss
Close
+150
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 4/30 settled · 100.0% positive CLV (4 closes)
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 1:19:01 PM CT

Over +4.5 +105

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants · F5 total · Play to +105

Market baseline
45.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
53.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.4%
Release
owner-directed
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-PILOT-0.1
Result
win
Close
+105
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/9/2026, 1:19:01 PM CT

Under +9.5 -115

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics · Full game total · Play to -115

Market baseline
51.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
60.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
9.8%
Release
owner-directed
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.5.1
Release policy
SR-MLB-PILOT-0.1
Result
win
Close
-110
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play9/7/2026, 6:30:19 PM CT

Over 4.5 +108

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants · F5 total · Play to +106

Raw projection
48.0%
Market baseline
45.2%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
48.0%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
2.8%
Release
owner-directed
Projection engine
SR-MLB-TOTALS-0.1
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/6/2026, 10:29:19 AM CT

Chicago Cubs F5 ML -165

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -175

Raw projection
62.5%
Market baseline
58.3%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
62.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.1%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.4
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/5/2026, 3:59:41 PM CT

Arizona Diamondbacks F5 ML -125

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -135

Raw projection
69.9%
Market baseline
52.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
65.9%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
13.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.4
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/5/2026, 3:34:32 PM CT

Minnesota Twins F5 ML -110

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -120

Raw projection
56.5%
Market baseline
49.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
56.5%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.3
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/5/2026, 3:34:31 PM CT

Boston Red Sox F5 ML -135

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -165

Raw projection
61.0%
Market baseline
54.1%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
61.0%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.3
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
push
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/5/2026, 3:34:30 PM CT

Pittsburgh Pirates F5 ML -200

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -205

Raw projection
69.1%
Market baseline
62.5%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
69.1%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
6.6%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.3
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/5/2026, 2:58:31 PM CT

Cleveland Guardians F5 ML -160

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -169

Raw projection
60.6%
Market baseline
57.5%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
60.6%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
3.0%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.3
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/4/2026, 4:19:12 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers first-five moneyline -145

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -157

Raw projection
61.5%
Market baseline
55.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
59.2%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
3.8%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/4/2026, 3:55:06 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers F5 ML -145

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · First 5 innings moneyline · Play to -170

Raw projection
62.6%
Market baseline
55.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
60.1%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/4/2026, 3:52:11 PM CT

Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 -105

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · First 5 innings run line · Play to -105

Raw projection
53.5%
Market baseline
48.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
52.8%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/3/2026, 11:00:25 AM CT

Houston Astros -0.5 -120

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros · F5 run line · Play to -125

Raw projection
55.4%
Market baseline
51.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
55.4%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
4.4%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
void
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/2/2026, 5:53:10 PM CT

Yankees F5 -0.5 +105

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels · F5 run line · Play to -110

Raw projection
51.4%
Market baseline
45.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
51.4%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
5.5%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/2/2026, 4:43:32 PM CT

Brewers ML -152

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs · Full game ML · Play to -170

Raw projection
75.3%
Market baseline
57.4%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
75.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
17.9%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 1/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play9/2/2026, 3:16:59 PM CT

Toronto Blue Jays F5 -0.5 -105

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians · F5 run line · Play to -110

Raw projection
55.4%
Market baseline
48.0%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
55.4%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
7.4%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.2
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 2/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play8/31/2026, 4:40:46 PM CT

Twins F5 -0.5 +105

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · F5 run line · Play to +100

Market baseline
45.5%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
57.0%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
11.4%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.1
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
+105
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
A closing price exists, but CLV was not snapshotted immutably when this historical pick was graded.
play8/30/2026, 12:37:16 PM CT

Mets F5 -0.5 +100

Houston Astros @ New York Mets · F5 run line · Play to -105

Market baseline
46.9%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
63.7%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
16.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.1
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
win
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
play8/30/2026, 10:34:25 AM CT

Dodgers F5 -0.5 -102

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers · F5 run line · Play to -115

Market baseline
47.6%
Weighted residual
—
Published probability
64.3%
Residual bound
Not used / unavailable
De-vig
Historical method
Edge
16.7%
Release
model-qualified
Projection engine
SR-MLB-0.1
Release policy
UNKNOWN
Result
loss
Close
Unavailable
Lane validation
Forward validation building · 3/50 settled · CLV awaiting exact closes
CLV
CLV unavailable
Closing price not captured
Back to the board