Thursday, September 24 · 11:35 AM CT
Cardinals vs Pirates prediction, odds and preview
St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. This page updates automatically as probable pitchers, game status, weather, and prices change.
Sports Rounders prediction
Pirates are the current prediction to win
Pittsburgh Pirates hold the stronger current market position at a no-vig estimate of 58.4%. This is a matchup lean, not a qualified Sports Rounders play; the available price still determines whether any wager has value.
- Projected favorite
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- No-vig market probability
- 58.4%
- Public call
- Moderate lean
Live research status
What changed—and what is verified
- Active model
- SR-MLB-0.5.3 Version stamped on releases
- Data refreshed
- Sep 25, 12:42 AM CT Central time
- Books reporting
- 4 Approved U.S. books only
- Page type
- Prediction Not an Official Play unless labeled
- 01Schedule and probable pitchersKyle Leahy vs. Paul Skenes listed by MLB.
- 02Two-sided sportsbook marketBoth moneyline sides are attached to the current board.
- 03Conditions and venuePNC Park · Sunny · 61°F · 7 mph, In From RF
- 04Official Play decisionPublished separately only after model, evidence, freshness and price gates clear.
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Final result and recap
St. Louis Cardinals 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
Pittsburgh Pirates won by 1 run, with 3 total runs scored. The pregame market favorite won outright. This recap preserves the original matchup context while the permanent Sports Rounders record separately grades only formally published plays.
- Pregame market call
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Final status
- Final
- Starting matchup
- Kyle Leahy vs. Paul Skenes
Matchup breakdown
What shapes the prediction
Kyle Leahy vs. Paul Skenes
The listed matchup is Kyle Leahy for St. Louis Cardinals against Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh Pirates. Confirmed lineups and bullpen availability can still change the final assessment.
Cardinals +135 · Pirates -148
Pirates have the stronger implied win probability after removing the two-way market margin.
PNC Park · Sunny · 61°F · 7 mph, In From RF
Park and weather are matchup context. They do not create a side by themselves, and the forecast can change before first pitch.
Full statistical preview
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates breakdown
Away team preview
St. Louis Cardinals statistical outlook
St. Louis Cardinals enter with a 77-81 record and a .487 winning percentage. The offense has produced 709 runs, 1288 hits, and 161 home runs in 158 games. Its slash line is .241/.315/.380, good for a .695 OPS.
The pitching staff carries a 4.26 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across 1410.2 innings, with 1248 strikeouts. Recent form is 4-6 over its last 10 completed games; the club scored 34 and allowed 47 in that sample.
St. Louis Cardinals trail their opponent’s full-season scoring rate, increasing the importance of run prevention and converting limited opportunities. Those season numbers establish the baseline, while the confirmed lineup will determine how much of that production is actually available today.
Home team preview
Pittsburgh Pirates statistical outlook
Pittsburgh Pirates enter with a 80-78 record and a .506 winning percentage. The offense has produced 751 runs, 1374 hits, and 182 home runs in 158 games. Its slash line is .254/.330/.405, good for a .735 OPS.
The pitching staff carries a 4.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 1410.1 innings, with 1453 strikeouts. Recent form is 6-4 over its last 10 completed games; the club scored 40 and allowed 39 in that sample.
Pittsburgh Pirates have the stronger full-season scoring rate in this matchup. Those season numbers establish the baseline, while the confirmed lineup will determine how much of that production is actually available today.
Starting pitching
Probable starter comparison
Kyle Leahy brings a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for St. Louis Cardinals; Paul Skenes enters at 3.91 and 1.13 for Pittsburgh Pirates. Kyle Leahy owns the lower season ERA, but starter ERA alone does not account for today’s lineup, park, defense, or expected bullpen bridge.
Kyle Leahy
- Record
- 10-5
- ERA
- 3.65
- WHIP
- 1.34
- Strikeouts
- 129
- Innings
- 138.0
- Starts
- 29
Paul Skenes
- Record
- 10-11
- ERA
- 3.91
- WHIP
- 1.13
- Strikeouts
- 192
- Innings
- 168.0
- Starts
- 31
Why Cardinals can win
St. Louis Cardinals path to the game
St. Louis Cardinals can win by pairing Kyle Leahy with an offense averaging 4.49 runs per game and avoiding an early leverage deficit. They do not hold an across-the-board statistical edge, so their path depends more heavily on the starter matchup, timely offense, and converting bullpen opportunities. The current market prices St. Louis Cardinals as the underdog at +135, but that price must still be evaluated against the final lineup and a fair win probability.
Why Pirates can win
Pittsburgh Pirates path to the game
Pittsburgh Pirates can win by pairing Paul Skenes with an offense averaging 4.75 runs per game and avoiding an early leverage deficit. Their measurable advantages include the better season OPS (.735), the lower team ERA (4.17), the better recent win count (6 over the last 10). The current market also makes Pittsburgh Pirates the more likely winner at -148, but that price must still be evaluated against the final lineup and a fair win probability.
How the matchup fits together
Sports Rounders game analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates bring the stronger season OPS, while Pittsburgh Pirates own the lower staff ERA. Pittsburgh Pirates have the better or equal recent win count in the available last-10 sample. That creates a matchup in which the season-long offensive, pitching, and recent-form signals mostly point toward Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh Pirates are the current price-based prediction, but the decision can still change with lineups, late pitching news, weather at PNC Park, and movement in the available moneyline.
The public prediction uses these verified facts as context around the current market. A qualified Pro release requires more: confirmed lineups, starter-role verification, bullpen availability, weather verification, a versioned model probability, and a playable price that clears the required edge threshold.
Game outlook
Kyle Leahy vs. Paul Skenes
St. Louis Cardinals are expected to start Kyle Leahy, while Pittsburgh Pirates list Paul Skenes. That is the central matchup entering the game, but a final betting decision should also account for confirmed batting orders and recent bullpen usage.
Pittsburgh Pirates are the current market-based pick at -148. That number is a snapshot, not a blanket recommendation: a team can be more likely to win and still be overpriced.
Matchup FAQ
Common questions about Cardinals vs Pirates
What is the Cardinals vs Pirates prediction?
Pirates are the current prediction to win. The public prediction reflects the current two-sided market and verified matchup context; it is not automatically an Official Play.
Who is pitching in Cardinals vs Pirates?
St. Louis Cardinals list Kyle Leahy, while Pittsburgh Pirates list Paul Skenes. Probable pitchers can change before first pitch.
What are the moneyline odds for Cardinals vs Pirates?
St. Louis Cardinals are currently +135 and Pittsburgh Pirates are -148. Prices can differ by sportsbook and move before the game.
Is this an official Sports Rounders bet?
No. A public prediction becomes an Official Play only when the complete model, evidence and exact available price clear the release rules before first pitch.
The public prediction is the starting point
Is there enough edge to bet it?
Founding Pro adds the Sports Rounders model probability, qualified price floor, unit size, lineup checks, bullpen context, and the permanent reasoning record.