NHL matchup preview · Sunday, October 25

New York Islanders at Dallas Stars

5:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · FUT. Official starter states, prior-season rates and the current approved-book market are shown separately.

Starting goalie boardAll NHL games
Experimental NHL model SR-NHL-0.2-shadow · shadow only · no official play

Current-season team scoring and defence rates are blended toward prior-season rates, with both shrunk toward league average. A small home-ice prior and sample-shrunk goalie adjustment are also applied when ESPN confirms both starters. This showed modest outcome-only improvement in a two-season chronological test, but has not passed market or CLV validation; it is not a recommended bet, edge, or playable price.

Starting goalies

Starter status is recorded with every forecast.

New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokinexpected20252026 stats · SV% 90.6 · GAA 2.68 · 54 startsSource →
Dallas Stars: Jake Oettingerexpected20252026 stats · SV% 89.9 · GAA 2.59 · 54 startsSource →
Full starting-goalie tracker →

Model baseline

Score projection

NYI 2.44 — 3.03 DAL
Away win estimate
40.4%
Home win estimate
59.6%
Modelled total
5.47
Both goalies confirmed
No — goalie adjustment withheld
NHL.com · current rates: 20262027 · shrinkage prior: 20252026 · method independent-poisson-score-matrix-v0.2-seasonal-shrinkage.

Current market

Paired prices

MoneylineNYI +164 · DAL -200FanDuel · refreshed 11:24 PM CT
Puck lineNYI 1.5 -158 · DAL -1.5 +128FanDuel · refreshed 11:24 PM CT
TotalOver 5.5 -105 · Under 5.5 -115FanDuel · refreshed 11:24 PM CT

NHL.com schedule and historical team rates · ESPN starting-goalie status · The Odds API market feed filtered to approved sportsbooks. Market feed status: Saved sportsbook prices; refresh follows the next pregame tier.